Did you know that equity markets can also be used to help gauge currency movement? In a way, you can use the equity indices as some kind of a forex crystal ball.
Based on what you see on the television, what you hear on the radio, and what you read in the newspaper, it seems that the stock (equity) market is the most closely covered financial market. It's definitely exciting to trade since you can buy the companies that make the products you can't live without.
One thing to remember is that in order to purchase stocks from a particular country, you must first have the local currency.
To invest in stocks in the Japan, a European investor must first exchange his euros (EUR) into Japanese yen (JPY). This increased demand for JPY causes the value of the JPY to appreciate. On the other hand, selling euros increases its supply, which drives the euro's value lower.
When the outlook for a certain stock market is looking good, international money flows in. On the other hand, when the stock market is struggling, international investors take their money out and look for a better place to park their funds.
Even though you may not trade stocks, as a forex trader, you should still pay attention to the stock markets in major countries.
If the stock market in one country starts performing better than the stock market in another country, you should be aware that money will probably be moving from the country with the weaker stock market to the country with the stronger stock market.
This could lead to a rise in value of the currency for the country with the stronger stock market, while the value of the currency could depreciate for the country with the weaker stock market. The general idea is: strong stock market, strong currency; weak stock market, weak currency.
If you bought the currency from the country with the stronger stock market and sold the currency from the country with the weaker stock market, you can potentially make some nice dough.
Showing posts with label Stock market. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stock market. Show all posts
Saturday, September 24, 2011
Elliott Wave Theory
Back in the old school days of the 1920-30s, there was this mad genius and professional accountant named Ralph Nelson Elliott.
By analyzing closely 75 years worth of stock data, Elliott discovered that stock markets, thought to behave in a somewhat chaotic manner, actually didn't.
When he hit 66 years old, he finally gathered enough evidence (and confidence) to share his discovery with the world.
He published his theory in the book entitled The Wave Principle.
According to him, the market traded in repetitive cycles, which he pointed out were the emotions of investors caused by outside influences (ahem, CNBC, Bloomberg, ESPN) or the predominant psychology of the masses at the time.
Elliott explained that the upward and downward swings in price caused by the collective psychology always showed up in the same repetitive patterns.
He called these upward and downward swings "waves".
He believes that, if you can correctly identify the repeating patterns in prices, you can predict where price will go (or not go) next.
This is what makes Elliott waves so appealing to traders. It gives them a way to identify precise points where price is most likely to reverse. In other words, Elliott came up with a system that enables traders to catch tops and bottoms.
So, amidst all the chaos in prices, Elliott found order. Awesome, huh?
Of course, like all mad geniuses, he needed to claim this observation and so he came up with a super original name: The Elliott Wave Theory.
But before we delve into the Elliott waves, you need to first understand what fractals are.
Forex Market Structure
For the sake of comparison, let us first examine a market that you are probably very familiar with: the stock market. This is how the structure of the stock market looks like:
"I have no choice but to go through a centralized exchange!"
By its very nature, the stock market tends to be very monopolistic. There is only one entity, one specialist that controls prices. All trades must go through this specialist. Because of this, prices can easily be altered to benefit the specialist, and not traders.
How does this happen?
In the stock market, the specialist is forced to fulfill the order of its clients. Now, let's say the number of sellers suddenly exceed the number of buyers. The specialist, which is forced to fulfill the order of its clients, the sellers in this case, is left with a bunch of stock that he cannot sell-off to the buyer side.
In order to prevent this from happening, the specialist will simply widen the spread or increase the transaction cost to prevent sellers from entering the market. In other words, the specialists can manipulate the quotes it is offering to accommodate its needs.
Trading Spot FX is Decentralized
Unlike in trading stocks or futures, you don't need to go through a centralized exchange like the New York Stock Exchange with just one price. In the forex market, there is no single price that for a given currency at any time, which means quotes from different currency dealers vary.
"So many choices! Awesome!"
This might be overwhelming at first, but this is what makes the forex market so freakin' awesome! The market is so huge and the competition between dealers is so fierce that you get the best deal almost every single time. And tell me, who does not want that?
Also, one cool thing about forex trading is that you can do it anywhere. It's just like trading baseball cards. You want that mint condition Mickey Mantle rookie card, so it is up to you to find the best deal out there. Your colleague might give up his Mickey Mantle card for just a Babe Ruth card, but your best friend will only part with his Mickey Mantle rookie card for your soul.
Read more: http://www.babypips.com/school/forex-market-structure.html#ixzz1Ys2jv8rU
"I have no choice but to go through a centralized exchange!"
By its very nature, the stock market tends to be very monopolistic. There is only one entity, one specialist that controls prices. All trades must go through this specialist. Because of this, prices can easily be altered to benefit the specialist, and not traders.
How does this happen?
In the stock market, the specialist is forced to fulfill the order of its clients. Now, let's say the number of sellers suddenly exceed the number of buyers. The specialist, which is forced to fulfill the order of its clients, the sellers in this case, is left with a bunch of stock that he cannot sell-off to the buyer side.
In order to prevent this from happening, the specialist will simply widen the spread or increase the transaction cost to prevent sellers from entering the market. In other words, the specialists can manipulate the quotes it is offering to accommodate its needs.
Trading Spot FX is Decentralized
Unlike in trading stocks or futures, you don't need to go through a centralized exchange like the New York Stock Exchange with just one price. In the forex market, there is no single price that for a given currency at any time, which means quotes from different currency dealers vary.
"So many choices! Awesome!"
This might be overwhelming at first, but this is what makes the forex market so freakin' awesome! The market is so huge and the competition between dealers is so fierce that you get the best deal almost every single time. And tell me, who does not want that?
Also, one cool thing about forex trading is that you can do it anywhere. It's just like trading baseball cards. You want that mint condition Mickey Mantle rookie card, so it is up to you to find the best deal out there. Your colleague might give up his Mickey Mantle card for just a Babe Ruth card, but your best friend will only part with his Mickey Mantle rookie card for your soul.
Read more: http://www.babypips.com/school/forex-market-structure.html#ixzz1Ys2jv8rU
Labels:
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Alicia Sacramone,
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New York Stock Exchange,
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Friday, August 5, 2011
GLOBAL MARKETS-World equities reel towards 8th day of losses
* MSCI World stocks index down 1 pct to low for 2011
* US Treasury futures near highest since Dec 2008
* Gold remains soft as investors sell to cover losses
* Japan sells record Y4 trln in FX intervention-Nikkei (Recasts, updates prices, adds quotes)
By Kevin Plumberg
SINGAPORE, Aug 5 (Reuters) - - World stock markets fell for the eighth straight session on Friday to the lowest since late 2010, with more losses feared if policymakers do not come to the rescue soon to stabilise the euro zone's debt crisis and prevent the U.S. economy from sliding back into recession.
After panic overnight triggered the worst sell-off on Wall Street since the global financial crisis, investors in Asia slashed positions in equities and commodities and scrambled for the safety of cash and government bonds.
Some Asian stocks markets fell by more than 5 percent.
Major European stock markets were expected to open as much as 2.2 percent lower while U.S. stock futures eased 0.2 percent, with investors worldwide waiting for U.S. employment figures due later in the day that could trigger further selling if the jobs picture disappoints.
"Equity valuations are already pretty low but sentiment keeps deteriorating, so why come in and buy now?" said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy at Sydney-based AMP Capital, which has more than $100 billion in assets under management.
Investors are looking for stronger U.S. and European policy responses, but it may be a while until they see another dose of quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve or a stop-gap measure in Europe, Oliver said, adding the firm had spent the past month neutralising its overweight positions.
Complicating matters was that Japan and Switzerland have intervened this week to knock down their currencies, which were considered the safest in the developed world. That has caused some safety-seeking investors to think twice about stashing money there when financial market volatility is spiking.
So far, retail investors were participating in the heavy selling but institutional equity investors in Asia were not completely liquidating their positions, instead continuing to cut riskier bets and protect their portfolios.
The benchmark MSCI all-country world stocks index fell 1 percent to the lowest since Dec. 1, 2010. The index has slumped nearly 11 percent since late July.
RISK REDUCTION
Japan's Nikkei share average fell 3.7 percent to the lowest since the week following the country's massive earthquake and tsunami in March.
An institutional fund manager overseeing 400 billion yen in Japanese equities, who could not be identified as he was not authorised to speak to media, said he was trying to reduce exposure to stocks which were dependent on external demand.
The asset manager was selling shares of carmakers, traders and electric machinery stocks, and buying retailers and textile manufacturers.
The benchmark MSCI index of Asia Pacific stocks outside Japan fell 4.6 percent , with investors selling across the sectors, whether they are defensive or cyclical. The index is on course for the biggest weekly drop since November 2008, when the global financial crisis was rippling through markets.
"Clearly, it's just a knee-jerk reaction to what's going on," said Michael Heffernan, senior client advisor with Austock Group in Australia. "We're going down simply on the fear that Italy can't pay its debts."
Within Asia, markets with high trade exposure to the West and reliance on commodities looked particularly vulnerable.
Taiwan, where the technology sector makes up about half of the equity market capitalisation and depends heavily on exports to developed countries, is a weak point in Asia.
The benchmark stock index in Taiwan led Asia, falling 5.1 percent .
EUROPE, LIQUIDITY AND WIDENING SPREADS
Europe, where overloaded national balance sheets have bedeviled politicians struggling to grasp the implications, is currently in the eye of the storm.
Italian and Spanish bond yields have kept rising and German bond yields are falling, widening spreads the most since the euro was born and causing deep-seated fears that realistic options for policymakers to keep the euro zone together are few.
The European Central Bank on Thursday resumed buying government bonds after a four-month break and announced new longer-term funding for liquidity-starved banks, but investors kept selling peripheral European bonds.
Traders who had went warily back to the yen and Swiss franc were tested.
The dollar whipsawed in Asian trading against the yen on talk of additional Japanese intervention, trading slightly lower on the day at 78.59 yen , a day after Japan reportedly spent a record 4 trillion yen ($50.6 billion) to weaken its currency and bolster its export competitiveness.
U.S. 10-year Treasury futures ticked up 9.5/32 to 128-9.5/32 , just below the Thursday high of 128-12/32, which was the highest since December 2008. The cash yield was at 2.39 percent , matching the lowest since October 2010.
The yield has sank nearly 40 basis points so far in August, as a wall of worry sends investors to the most liquid bond market in the world despite worries about Washington's ability to cut spending and rein in longer-term debt.
Commodity markets extended heavy overnight losses on fears of slowing demand.
U.S. crude for September delivery fell 1.1 percent to $85.54 a barrel, the lowest since February 2011.
Spot gold prices edged up $6.74 an ounce to $1,654.84 after hitting a record around $1,681 an ounce on Thursday before losing some of the gains.
In an ominous sign, gold prices in the past 24 hours were soft despite the spiralling fears hurting risky markets. Investors were having to sell gold positions to cover losses elsewhere in their portfolios.
"This will not be a quiet day. Liquidity will be at a premium," a sales trader with a European bank said. (Additional reporting by Vikram Subhedar in Hong Kong and Antoni Slodkowski in Tokyo; Editing by Kim Coghill)
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