German ZEW Economic Sentiment

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Sun
Sep 18 6:00pm NZD
Westpac Consumer Sentiment

112.0
112.0

7:01pm GBP
Rightmove HPI m/m

0.7%
-2.1%

7:01pm GBP
BOE Quarterly Bulletin

All Day JPY
Bank Holiday

Mon
Sep 19 10:00am USD
NAHB Housing Market Index

14
15
15

10:30am USD
President Obama Speaks

2:00pm CAD
Gov Council Member Lane Speaks

9:30pm AUD
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Tue
Sep 20 1:45am CHF
SECO Economic Forecasts

2:00am CHF
Trade Balance

0.81B
1.97B
2.81B

2:00am EUR
German PPI m/m

-0.3%
0.1%
0.7%

5:00am EUR
German ZEW Economic Sentiment

-43.3
-44.3
-37.6

5:00am EUR
ZEW Economic Sentiment

-44.6
-42.3
-40.0

8:30am CAD
Leading Index m/m

0.0%
0.2%
0.1%

8:30am CAD
Wholesale Sales m/m

0.8%
0.7%
0.0%

8:30am USD
Building Permits

0.62M
0.60M
0.60M

8:30am USD
Housing Starts

0.57M
0.59M
0.60M

11:45am CAD
BOC Gov Carney Speaks

6:45pm NZD
Current Account

-0.92B
-0.69B
-0.09B

6:53pm NZD
Visitor Arrivals m/m

8.0%
8.8%

7:01pm GBP
Nationwide Consumer Confidence

48
47
49

7:50pm JPY
Trade Balance

-0.29T
-0.01T
-0.16T

8:30pm AUD
MI Leading Index m/m

0.5%
0.1%

10:00pm CNY
CB Leading Index m/m

0.6%
0.9%

11:00pm NZD
Credit Card Spending y/y

4.7%
7.2%

Wed
Sep 21 12:30am JPY
All Industries Activity m/m

0.4%
0.9%
2.2%

4:30am GBP
MPC Meeting Minutes

0-0-9
0-0-9
0-0-9
4:30am GBP
Public Sector Net Borrowing

13.2B
11.3B
-5.2B

7:00am CAD
Core CPI m/m

0.4%
0.1%
0.2%

7:00am CAD
CPI m/m

0.3%
0.1%
0.2%

7:35am GBP
MPC Member Dale Speaks

9:20am AUD
RBA Deputy Gov Battellino Speaks

10:00am USD
Existing Home Sales

5.03M
4.76M
4.67M

10:30am USD
Crude Oil Inventories

-7.3M
-1.6M
-6.7M

2:23pm USD
FOMC Statement

2:23pm USD
Federal Funds Rate

<0.25%
<0.25%
<0.25%

6:30pm AUD
RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks

6:45pm NZD
GDP q/q

0.1%
0.5%
0.9%

10:30pm CNY
HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI

49.4
49.9

Thu
Sep 22 1:30am AUD
RBA Annual Report

3:00am EUR
French Flash Manufacturing PMI

47.3
48.6
49.1

3:00am EUR
French Flash Services PMI

52.5
54.4
56.8

3:30am EUR
German Flash Manufacturing PMI

50.0
50.2
50.9

3:30am EUR
German Flash Services PMI

50.3
50.6
51.1

4:00am EUR
Flash Manufacturing PMI

48.4
48.6
49.0

4:00am EUR
Flash Services PMI

49.1
51.1
51.5

5:00am CHF
ZEW Economic Expectations

-75.7
-71.4

5:00am EUR
Industrial New Orders m/m

-2.1%
-1.1%
-1.2%

6:00am GBP
CBI Industrial Order Expectations

-9
-5
1

8:30am CAD
Core Retail Sales m/m

0.0%
0.2%
0.0%

8:30am CAD
Retail Sales m/m

-0.6%
-0.2%
0.8%

8:30am USD
Unemployment Claims

423K
419K
432K

10:00am EUR
Consumer Confidence

-19
-18
-17

10:00am USD
CB Leading Index m/m

0.3%
0.2%
0.6%

10:00am USD
OFHEO HPI m/m

0.8%
0.0%
0.7%

Day 1 ALL
G20 Meetings

10:30am USD
Natural Gas Storage

89B
91B
87B

8:00pm AUD
CB Leading Index m/m

-0.1%
-0.8%

All Day JPY
Bank Holiday

9:30pm AUD
RBA Financial Stability Review

Fri
Sep 23 3:30am CHF
SNB Quarterly Bulletin

4:00am EUR
Italian Retail Sales m/m

-0.1%
0.3%
-0.3%

4:30am GBP
BBA Mortgage Approvals

35.2K
33.2K
33.7K

9:00am EUR
Belgium NBB Business Climate

-9.4
-8.9
-7.8

Day 2 ALL
G20 Meetings

All Day ALL
IMF Meetings

1:30pm USD
FOMC Member Dudley Speaks

4:30pm EUR
ECB President Trichet Speaks

Sat
Sep 24  10:00am NZD
Daylight Saving Time Shift

7:00pm EUR
ECB President Trichet Speaks

Europe Needs a Bazooka

Remember Hank Paulson’s bazooka? Well, it turned out that the Paulson bazooka was more like the Bernanke/Paulson bazooka. The combination of monetary policy and fiscal policy during the credit crisis was highly effective in ending the solvency concerns that were unfolding in 2008. QE1 “worked” in that it shored up markets when it was needed. Combining this with the stimulus act was a potent mix. And though I believe they were not our best options at the time (I was in favor of a Swedish approach to the US banking system and a stimulus that was more focused on helping Main Street) they proved to stop the contagion. Europe must stop the contagion.

Although not entirely analogous to the American credit crisis (which was really a household debt crisis), the Euro crisis is similar. And I think it’s going to require an equally large bazooka. The only problem is that Jean Claude Trichet doesn’t have his Hank Paulson (no central Treasury in Europe). This recent piece in the FT laid out the problem superbly:

“Stopping Europe’s current crisis requires fundamental overhaul of the eurozone’s institutions. But the most important part of that overhaul is to ensure that the ECB takes on full responsibility as a lender of last resort in the government bond markets of the eurozone. Without this, the markets cannot be stabilised and crises will remain endemic.

At the same time, further steps towards political unification must be taken, without which control on national government deficits and debts cannot be implemented. Some steps in that direction were taken recently when the European Council strengthened control of national budgetary processes and on national macroeconomic policies. These decisions, however, are insufficient, and more fundamental changes in the governance of the eurozone are needed. These should be such that the ECB can trust that its lender of last resort responsibilities in the government bond markets will not lead to a never-ending dynamic of debt creation.”

I am still having trouble seeing a scenario in which Europe isn’t forced into greater unification, a Euro bond and a central treasury. The only question is whether they will wait for the entire union to collapse before trying to put it back together again or if they will be proactive?

T